Vanke can not say the market is sensitive. When Premier Wen Jiabao said in Macau difficult for falling prices, the Vanke 5 in Wuhan overall price cut real estate began. In fact, the market is now very clear, or insisted on the death rate did not fall, and fall will soon blew out, spectacular.
Against the laws of the market, sooner or later be punished by the market. Although the government can rescue the market again and again, but the old saying, one go bad and thrice again. China's property market has reached a "thrice," when the days are numbered, no way to be able to rescue the rescue to solve the problem.
2010 will soon be over, coming in 2011. Do not know who is optimistic on house prices in 2011? Some might say, Vanke cut prices in order to return the funds at the end to have a good performance, so that earnings can be accepted by the market. At the end of return of funds, referring to a normal year, 2010, in terms of real estate is definitely not what a normal year, the market parties are desperate rivalry, who the winner is not known.
Do not know, there's the ever-changing international economic situation, Sino-US trade who do not know what would happen to the dispute, and what impact will China's macro economy, what harm? However, the domestic situation is more probably understand. Economically, inflation can not be resolved by administrative means, therefore, not inflation peaked in 2011, this will prompt the central bank to shift monetary policy to reduce the new loans, lower rate of currency to try to achieve positive rates. The shift of monetary policy on the market is fatal.
Support the property market, purchasing power, only speculative funds. The so-called "just to be" can not afford such high prices, many people were forced to turn to other channels to solve housing problems. The Government's protection of residential and can not be supplied to "just be" cost of living, a significant increase in production costs, many businesses and individuals daunting. Overall economic output shrinking first-tier cities, as growth slowed, a large number of white-collar workers turned to second and third tier cities, first-tier cities can not have follow-up purchasing power to promote the property.
Faced with this change, the market will be the performance level is:
First, the real estate company laid off half. Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou intermediary peak more than 50 million employees, is expected to reduce by half in 2011, stores the same shrinking dramatically, probably only second-hand real estate transactions and leasing can also feed some staff. Therefore, you should first of all "winter" in preparation, will not happen again in 2007, Shenzhen Zhongtian home owners with money to escape the event.
Second, closing an area of new homes in June 2011 began a comprehensive inflection point, Shenzhen to advance it. We want to see the growth in turnover in 2010 was a bubble property market growth, particularly in the first-tier cities, therefore, the developer in order to survive, most will turn to second and third tier cities, resulting in second and third tier cities in the supply surge. Property market collapse in 2012 began in the second and third tier cities in the outbreak, about 30% of the developers financial problems, loans contracted in the context of escape bankruptcy.
Third, increasing flight of corrupt officials, causing severe blood loss, the property market. Most corrupt officials to buy a house in the first-tier cities, with the network information of the public, many corrupt officials have been fear, many people dare not continue the gray income dropped into the property market, which will cause a sudden loss of blood speculative funds, trading volume declined significantly. Only in Shenzhen, the normal daily average volume of about 600 sets to reach the normal level is, in fact, now more than a month, the daily turnover of less than 100 units, is difficult to support.
Fourth, property tax levy, vacant residential face lore. Property tax is expected to be submitted to the National in 2011, "two sessions", the real start time is about the introduction of the end of 2011, the city started the time line in 2012. Large number of vacant houses in the context of comprehensive tax will automatically flow to the market, some low-cost selling, some to rent.
|
I want to comment
Number of Comments：2 （Show）